NFL TNF FOOTBALL Week 2: Buffalo vs Miami! (updated 5:50)

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NFL TNF FOOTBALL Week 2: Buffalo vs Miami!

• Sports Picks That Save You Time, Give You Insight, and Make You Money!

• Prizepicks, Fanduel, and Underdog entries below
• EXPERT PICKS: Confidence and Picks Against Spread
• BEST BETS With Detailed Breakdown
• PLAYER PROPS Below Too 👇
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• Lines will be based on best bets if we use them since lines change constantly.

EXPERT PICKS: Money Line

EXPERT PICKS: Pick 6 Spreads

Ray's Picks Against The Spread

• Last Week 10-6
• updated Thur 12:15

BEST BETS FOR THURSDAY

• I will do straight bets for all of these and usually do round robins (2x2 parlays)
• I mix and match these in Prizepicks and Underdog Entries.
• Fanduel and Draftkings have no sweat bets.

James Cook over 19.5 receiving yards

• Consistent Target: James Cook is expected to catch at least three passes, indicating a steady role in the passing game. His involvement as a receiving option out of the backfield makes him a reliable target for short to intermediate passes.
• Yardage Potential: With a modest line of 19.5 receiving yards, Cook only needs to average just over 6.5 yards per catch to exceed this mark. Given his agility and ability to gain yards after the catch, this seems quite achievable.
• Offensive Scheme: The Bills' offensive strategy often includes utilizing running backs in the passing game, particularly in check-down situations or designed screen plays. This approach provides Cook with ample opportunities to rack up receiving yards.
• Matchup Dynamics: Depending on the defensive scheme, Cook could find himself matched up against linebackers or safeties, positions he can exploit with his speed and elusiveness. This mismatch potential increases his chances of breaking a play for significant yardage.
• Game Flow: In a game that might feature a lot of scoring, as previously discussed, Cook could see increased targets as the Bills look to keep the chains moving and maintain offensive momentum.
• Favorite Bet Confidence: Your confidence in this bet suggests a strong belief in Cook's ability to deliver, and the statistics and game context support this optimism.

Over 48 points

• High-Scoring Potential: The Bills recently engaged in a high-scoring affair with the Cardinals, indicating their capability and willingness to participate in shootouts. This trend bodes well for a game total exceeding 48.5 points.
• Miami's Aerial Success: The Dolphins are expected to find more success through the air against the Bills than they did against the Jaguars. With their passing game potentially firing on all cylinders, Miami could contribute significantly to the overall score.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: Buffalo's defense can be susceptible to vertical attacks, providing Miami with opportunities to exploit downfield plays. This defensive gap could lead to quick scoring drives and increased points on the board.
• Josh Allen's Offensive Prowess: The Dolphins may struggle to contain Josh Allen, whose dual-threat capabilities can lead to both passing and rushing touchdowns. His ability to extend plays and find the end zone is a key factor in pushing the total over 48.5 points.
• Potential for a Dalton Kincaid Breakout: Thursday Night Football might witness a standout performance from Dalton Kincaid, adding another layer of offensive firepower for the Bills. His potential impact could further elevate the scoring.
• Emotional and Tactical Adjustments: With the Dolphins recovering from the distraction of Tyreek Hill's arrest, they might come into this game with renewed focus and energy, ready to capitalize on any defensive lapses by Buffalo.

Buffalo +3 ✅

• Buffalo's Dominance: The Bills have a knack for controlling the line of scrimmage, making them a formidable force against Miami. It's like watching a buffalo stampede – powerful and unstoppable!
• Clock Control: Buffalo knows how to manage the game clock effectively, keeping the pressure on Miami. It's like they have a secret time-turner, but for football!
• Miami's Defensive Struggles: Miami's defense has been shaky, and Buffalo is ready to capitalize on that. It's like trying to stop a buffalo with a feather – not happening!
• Beat-Up Backfield: Miami's backfield issues could spell trouble for them, giving Buffalo an edge. It's like trying to run a marathon with a sprained ankle – ouch!
• Ground Game Strength: Buffalo's ability to pound the ball against Miami is a game-changer. It's like watching a buffalo charge through a field – pure power and determination!

Josh Allen over 36 rush yards

• Red Zone Power Source: Josh Allen is a crucial component of the Bills' red zone offense, often using his legs to make impactful plays. His role as a rushing threat near the goal line is a consistent feature of the Bills' strategy.
• Historical Performance Against Miami: Allen averages 35 rushing yards per game against the Miami Dolphins throughout his career. Notably, he's surpassed 47 rushing yards in four of his last five matchups against them, showcasing his ability to exploit this particular defense.
• Rushing Volume: Over his recent games against Miami, Allen has averaged nine rushes per game. This volume indicates a deliberate use of his rushing ability, which is likely to continue given the Bills' offensive style.
• Offensive Identity: I could see him dropping back to pass and scrambling for a 20-yard run alone.

Keon Coleman over 44.5 rec yards

• Route Share Dominance: Keon Coleman led the Buffalo Bills with an impressive 86.7% route share in Week 1. This high percentage indicates that he is consistently on the field running routes, increasing his opportunities to catch passes.
• Air Yards Share: Coleman commanded a 28.1% share of the team's air yards. This metric highlights his involvement in deeper passing plays, which are crucial for accumulating significant yardage.
• Target Share Leadership: With a 21.7% target share, Coleman was the most targeted player on the team in Week 1. This suggests a strong level of trust in the quarterback and a pivotal role in the passing game.
• Week 1 Performance: Coleman recorded 4 receptions for 51 yards on 5 targets in the first week shows his ability to surpass the 44.5-yard mark will likely this performance not only shows his ability to surpass the 44.5-yard mark but also demonstrates his efficiency and reliability as a receiver.
• Consistency and Potential: Given his leading metrics in route, air yards, and target shares, Coleman is positioned as a key offensive weapon. His involvement in the game plan will likely continue, providing ample opportunities to exceed the 44.5 receiving yards threshold. Coleman recorded 4 receptions for 51 yards on 5 targets in the first week

Year To Date For Best Bets

Win: 10

Loss: 6

Total: 16

63% 🤑 (if you are over 53% you will win money consistently)

NFL Player Props For Thursday

(I will probably update some of these On Thursday so Check back)

QB's

• Josh Allen over 36.5 rush yards
• Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TD's
• Tua Tagovailoa over 4.5 rush yards ✅
• Josh Allen over 7.5 rush attempts

RB'S

• James Cook over 19.5 rec yards
• Devon Achane over 52.5 rush yards ✅
• James Cook over 62.5 rush yards ✅
• Devon Achane: over 30.5 receiving yards✅

WIDES

• Keon Coleman over 44.5 rec yards
• Tyreek Hill over 98.5 yards
• Curtis Samuel over 17.5 receiving yards
• Khalil Shakir over 40.5 rec yards ✅

TE's

• Dalton Kincaid over 44.5 rec yards (rebounds)

KICKERS

• Jason Sanders over 1.5 FG

Special

Year To Date For PLAYER PROPS

(Week 1 was terrible for QB's, Wides and TE's)

Win: 23

Loss: 20

Total: 43

54%

• 50% to 55%: This is considered average. Achieving a win rate in this range means you're breaking even or making slight profits, depending on the odds and the vig (the bookmaker's cut).

It's important to note that even professional bettors often aim for a win rate in the mid-50s. Consistency, bankroll management, and understanding the value in odds are crucial factors in achieving a successful sports betting strategy.

• 55% to 60%: This is considered good. Bettors with this win percentage are usually making a profit, assuming they're betting with consistent stakes and managing their bankroll effectively.
• 60% and above: This is considered excellent. Achieving this win rate consistently is challenging and typically indicates a high level of expertise or an effective betting strategy.

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PRIZEPICKS ENTRIES You Can Copy

• Mix and match as you see fit. I like 6-man entries but if you want to do 2-6 it's your money.
• I will do more so check back on the site. I will say ("update" on the main title)

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DraftKings Lineups Or Bets

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• No sweat TD bet. I bet Kincaid on Buffalo first TD +1500

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FANDUEL Lineups Or Bets

• I rarely play heads-up games on Fanduel but I always do the main slate on Saturday or Sunday.
• Same game parlay no sweat bet
• Bills+7.5/Over 44.5/Tua 250/Allen 225/Allen 2+td/Hill 90/waddle 50/kincaid 25/coleman 40/cook 3 rec/cook 40/allen over 36.5 rush/cook over 18.5 = +8015 ($10 pays $811 or 100 pays $8110)

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Your NFL Sensei,

Ray

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ray Morrison is a seasoned pro in the fantasy sports arena, having played since 1994. As a professional DFS and fantasy football player, he's mastered the art of single-entry tournaments, making him a formidable competitor.

Ray is also the visionary behind SwagScale, a platform that combines his strategic insights with a flair, offering sports enthusiasts a private community to enjoy sports.

Beyond the fantasy field, Ray holds a Juris Doctor degree from John Marshall Law School, adding a strategic edge to his gameplay. His legal acumen, along with his playing Football, Basketball, and Baseball his entire life and nearly three decades of fantasy experience, make him a respected figure in the community.

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