NFL Sunday Week 1: Cowboys vs Browns and More!

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1st Two Games

• Rashee Rice Yards ✅
  Justice Hill Rec yards ✅
  Derrick Henry TD ✅
  Harrison Butker Fantasy ✅
  Isiah Pacheco TD ✅
  Isiah Pacheco over rec yards ✅
  Lamarr jackson over 218 ✅
  Rashod Bateman over 29 yards ✅
  Justin Tucker over 7 fantasy ✅
  Patrick Mahomes over pass yards ✅
  KC -2.5 ✅
• Saquan Barkley Over 15.5 rec yards✅
• Saquan Barkley over 64 rush yards✅
• Saquan Barkley Over 14 fantasy points✅
• Saquan Barkley TD ✅
• Jordan Love pass yards ✅,
• Jordan Love over 1.5 TD's ✅
• Jalen Hurts over pass yrds ✅
• AJ BROWN over 70 rec yards✅
• Dallas Goedeert Over 25 yards ✅
• Jaden Reed over 42 rec yards ✅
• Josh Jacobs over rush yards ✅
• Romeo Doubs over 40 yards rec ✅
• Phil -2 ✅
  
• What a start🔥 This would have paid your entire year plus a steak dinner and something nice!🤑

NFL Sunday Week 1: Cowboys vs Browns and More!

• You can take advantage of a free trial this week only. You will love this.
• Sports Picks That Save You Time, Give You Insight, and Make You Money!

• Prizepicks, Fanduel, and Underdog entries below
• EXPERT PICKS: Confidence and Picks Against Spread
• BEST BETS With Detailed Breakdown
• PLAYER PROPS Below Too 👇
• Caleb Williams free square on Prizepicks.
• Monday Night Article will be out Sunday night.

• Lines will be based on best bets if we use them since lines change constantly.

EXPERT PICKS: Money Line

EXPERT PICKS: Pick 6 Spreads

Ray's Picks Against The Spread

BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY

• I will do straight bets for all of these and usually do round robins (2x2 parlays)
• Fanduel and Draftkings have no sweat bets.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5

• Chargers' Offensive Setbacks: The Chargers have recently lost several key offensive weapons, which could hinder their ability to put points on the board. This loss of firepower might make it challenging for them to maintain their usual offensive rhythm and explosiveness.
• Homefield Advantage Diminished: The Chargers are not known for having a strong home-field advantage, and this matchup is no exception. The lack of a significant home crowd presence could make this game feel more like a neutral-site contest, leveling the playing field for the Raiders.
• Close Matchup: The spread being closer to a field goal reflects the narrow margin between the two, making the Raiders an appealing choice with the extra half-point cushion.
• Physical Style of Play: Both teams are likely to engage in a physical, grind-it-out style of football, which often results in lower-scoring games. This type of matchup favors taking the points, as the Raiders can capitalize on a slower-paced game to keep it close.
• Value in the Spread: By taking the Raiders +3.5, you're getting the benefit of the "hook," which could be crucial in a game that might come down to a field goal. This added value makes the Raiders an enticing option for those looking to bet on a gritty, competitive contest.

JX +3.5 (Lawrence & Engram should do well) ✅

• Homefield Advantage Neutralized: Miami usually enjoys a significant home-field advantage in September due to the heat and humidity. However, this week, they face another Florida team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have been acclimating to similar weather conditions since August. This levels the playing field considerably.
• Preseason Preparation: The Jaguars have been proactive in getting their starters ready for the season opener by playing them during the preseason. This preparation could translate into a more cohesive and game-ready team, giving them an edge over the Dolphins.
• Trevor Lawrence's Potential: Look for Trevor Lawrence to have a standout performance. As the Jaguars' quarterback, Lawrence has shown promise and could exploit the Dolphins' defense, especially with the added motivation of starting the season strong.
• Value in the Spread: With the spread at +3.5, there's value in taking the Jaguars. The "hook" (the extra half-point) could be crucial in a potentially close game, making Jacksonville an attractive option for those looking to bet on the underdog.
• The Miami Dolphins' offense is like a fireworks show on the Fourth of July—explosive and thrilling to watch! With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle blazing down the field, they bring speed and agility that can leave defenders in the dust. Add in De'Von Achane, and you've got a trifecta of talent that can turn any play into a highlight reel.
• This dynamic trio makes the Dolphins' offense a force to be reckoned with, capable of lighting up the scoreboard in the blink of an eye. It's no wonder defenses have their hands full trying to keep up with Miami's high-octane attack!

Atlanta - 2.5 (I am a diehard Steelers fan so this is hard for me to pick)

• Homefield Advantage: The Falcons have the comfort of playing at home, where they can feed off the energy of their fans and enjoy the familiar surroundings of their own turf. This advantage can be a significant factor in close games, providing the Falcons with an extra boost.
• Legitimate Offense: Atlanta's offense is looking sharp and ready to roll. With a solid lineup of playmakers, they have the potential to put up points and keep the pressure on the Steelers' defense. This offensive prowess could be the key to securing a victory by more than a field goal.
• Steelers' Offensive Struggles: The Steelers have been grappling with offensive woes throughout the preseason, leaving them uncertain about their starting lineup. This lack of clarity and cohesion on offense could hinder their ability to keep pace with the Falcons.
• Expected Margin of Victory: Given the circumstances, it's reasonable to anticipate the Falcons winning by at least three points. The spread of -2.5 aligns with this expectation, making Atlanta an attractive option for those confident in their ability to cover.
• Confidence in the Spread: With the spread set at -2.5, you're banking on the Falcons to win by a field goal or more. Considering the factors at play, this seems like a plausible outcome, making Atlanta a compelling choice for bettors.

Buffalo -6.5

• Homefield Advantage with Bills Mafia: Playing at home, the Buffalo Bills have the formidable support of the Bills Mafia, one of the most passionate fan bases in the NFL. This electrifying atmosphere can provide a significant morale boost for the team and create a challenging environment for the visiting Cardinals.
• Stout Bills Defense: Buffalo's defense is known for its strength and resilience. With a solid defensive lineup, they have the capability to stifle Arizona's offensive efforts and keep them from gaining any momentum. This defensive prowess is a key factor in their ability to cover the spread.
• Arizona's Struggles: The Cardinals are expected to face challenges this season, with many predicting a less-than-stellar performance. This perceived weakness could be exploited by the Bills, who are eager to start the season on a high note.
• Strong Opening Day Performance: The Bills are poised to come out strong on opening day, setting the tone for their season. With a well-prepared team and the motivation to impress their home crowd, Buffalo is likely to deliver a commanding performance.
• Confidence in the Spread: With the spread at -6.5, you're banking on the Bills to win by at least a touchdown. Given the factors at play, including their home-field advantage and defensive strength, this seems like a reasonable expectation.

Hou vs Ind Over 48.5 ✅

• High-Octane Offenses: Both Houston and Indianapolis boast strong offensive units capable of lighting up the scoreboard. With talented playmakers on both sides, this game has the potential to turn into an offensive showcase, with plenty of scoring opportunities.
• Shootout Potential: Given the offensive firepower, this matchup is primed to be a shootout. Both teams have the ability to move the ball effectively and put up points in bunches, making the over an enticing option for those expecting a high-scoring affair.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: While both teams have potent offenses, their defenses have shown vulnerabilities that can be exploited. This could lead to a back-and-forth battle where each team capitalizes on the other's defensive lapses, further boosting the score.
• Quarterback Duel: The game features a compelling quarterback matchup, with both signal-callers eager to make their mark. This duel could result in an aerial assault, with both quarterbacks airing it out and contributing to a high point total.
• Confidence in the Over: With the total set at 48.5, you're banking on both teams combining for at least 49 points. Given the offensive strengths and potential for a shootout, this seems like a plausible outcome, making the over an attractive choice.

So, if you're anticipating a high-scoring, action-packed game with both offenses firing on all cylinders, taking the over 48.5 could be the winning play! 🏈

Wash vs TB over 42.5 ✅

• Defensive Weaknesses: Both Washington and Tampa Bay have shown vulnerabilities on the defensive side of the ball. These weaknesses create opportunities for both offenses to exploit, potentially leading to a higher-scoring game as each team capitalizes on defensive lapses.
• Offensive Capabilities: Both teams possess offenses that can effectively move the ball down the field. With playmakers capable of making big plays, both Washington and Tampa Bay have the potential to put up points quickly and consistently throughout the game.
• Potential for Big Plays: Given the defensive struggles, this game could see several explosive plays that contribute to the scoring. Whether it's long passes, breakaway runs, or special teams contributions, the potential for big plays adds to the likelihood of surpassing the point total.
• Quarterback Matchup: The game features quarterbacks who are capable of leading their teams on scoring drives. With both signal-callers eager to make an impact, the passing game could be a significant factor in driving up the score.
• Confidence in the Over: With the total set at 42.5, you're banking on both teams combining for at least 43 points. Considering the defensive issues and offensive potential, this seems like a reasonable expectation, making the over an appealing choice.

So, if you're expecting a game where both offenses take advantage of defensive shortcomings and light up the scoreboard, taking over 42.5 could be the way to go! 🏈

Seattle -5.5 ✅

• New Head Coach Challenge: Seattle is introducing a new head coach, Mike Macdonald, who, while renowned as a premier defensive playcaller, faces the challenge of making his NFL head coaching debut. This transition can be tricky, and the pressure of leading a team for the first time might impact Denver's overall performance.
• Offensive Struggles for Denver: Denver is expected to face difficulties in putting points on the board. With potential issues in offensive execution, the Broncos might struggle to keep up with Seattle, allowing the Seahawks to control the game and the scoreboard.
• Seattle's Advantage: With Denver potentially starved for points, Seattle's offense doesn't need to produce an overwhelming total to cover the spread. A solid, consistent performance should suffice to maintain a comfortable lead and cover the 6.5-point spread.
• Confidence in Seattle's Ability: The Seahawks have the experience and capability to capitalize on any early-season adjustments Denver might be making under their new head coach. This stability and readiness can translate into a decisive victory.
• Spread Consideration: With the spread set at -6.5, you're banking on Seattle to win by at least a touchdown. Given the factors at play, including Denver's potential offensive struggles and the challenge of a new head coach, this seems like a plausible outcome.

So, if you're confident in Seattle's ability to take advantage of Denver's early-season uncertainties and secure a solid win, taking them at -6.5 could be the winning play!

Year To Date For Best Bets

Win: 7

Loss: 4

Total: 11

64%

NFL PLAYER PROPS FOR SUNDAY

QB's

• Caleb Williams over 265.5 pass+rush (I think he has a big day)
• Josh Allen over 32.5 rush yards✅
• Josh Allen under 248 pass yards ✅
• C.J. Stroud over 8.5 rush yards✅
• C.J. Stroud over 19.5 fantasy✅
• Trevor Lawrence over 253 pass
• Jared Goff over 1.5 TD's
• Jayden Daniels over 1.5 pass+rush+rec TDS✅
• Bo Nix over 201 pass yards
• Tua Tagovailoa over 3.5 rush yards✅
• Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 tds
• Matthew Stafford over 1.5 TDS
• Justin Fields over 242.5 pass+rush

RB'S

• Kenneth Walker III over 12.5 fantasy✅
• Kenneth Walker III over 67.5 rush yards✅
• Rhomondre Stevens over 48 rush✅
• Jaleel McLaughlin over 22.5 rush yards✅
• Devon Achane over 13.5 fantasy✅
• Bijan Robinson over 26 rec yards✅
• James Cook over 61 rush yards✅
• Rachaad White over 14.5 fantasy✅
• Jonathan Taylor over 13.5 fantasy
• Zack Moss over 10.5 rec yards✅
• Kyren Williams over 57.5 rush yards
• Aaron Jones over 14.5 rec yards✅
• Devin Singletary over 67.5 rush+rec yards
• Chuba Hubbard over 55.5 rush yard
• Ezekiel Elliott under 34 rush yards. (he looked slow in training camp)

WIDES

• Devonte Adams over 71.5 yards
• Justin Jefferson over 82.5 yards
• Tyreke Hill over 98.5 rec yards ✅
• Puka Nacua over 72.5 yards REBOOT
• Terry McLaurin over 59.5 yards
• Mike Evans over 68.5 yards
• Michael Pittman Jr. over 61.5 rec yards
• Nico Collins over 67.5 yards✅
• D.K. Metcalf over 59.5 yards
• Josh Palmer over 52.5 yards
• Diontae Johnson over 53.5 yards
• Amari Cooper over 56.5 yards
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 43.5 yards
• Demarcus Robinson over 28.5 rec yard✅
• Keenan Allen over 48.5
• Darnell Mooney over 34.5 rec yards
• George Pickens over 52 yards (I think fields targets him like he did DJ MOORE)✅
• Keon Coleman over 32 rec yards✅

TE's

• Evan Engram over 5 catches
• Evan Engram over 47.5 yards
• Sam LaPorta over 12 fantasy (scoring)
• Trey McBride over 50 yards (prob my favorite play)
• David Njoku over 43 rec yards✅
• Kyle Pitts over 45 rec yards
• Jake Ferguson over 40.5 rec yards
• Dalton Kincaid over 50 yards (ARZ has always been bad against TE)

KICKERS

Special

• TJ Watt over .75 sacks✅
• Micah Parsons over .75 sacks✅
• Maxx Crosby over .75 sacks✅
• Amon-Ra St. Brown + Cooper Kupp over 151.5 yards (this cost me a 6-man bc of brown)

Year To Date For PLAYER PROPS

Win: 20

Loss: 12

Total: 32

63%

• 50% to 55%: This is considered average. Achieving a win rate in this range means you're breaking even or making slight profits, depending on the odds and the vig (the bookmaker's cut).

It's important to note that even professional bettors often aim for a win rate in the mid-50s. Consistency, bankroll management, and understanding the value in odds are crucial factors in achieving a successful sports betting strategy.

• 55% to 60%: This is considered good. Bettors with this win percentage are usually making a profit, assuming they're betting with consistent stakes and managing their bankroll effectively.
• 60% and above: This is considered excellent. Achieving this win rate consistently is challenging and typically indicates a high level of expertise or an effective betting strategy.

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• Mix and match as you see fit. I like 6-man entries but if you want to do 2-6 it's your money.
• I will do more so check back on the site. I will say ("update" on main title)

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Your NFL Sensei,

Ray

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ray Morrison is a seasoned pro in the fantasy sports arena, having played since 1994. As a professional DFS and fantasy football player, he's mastered the art of single-entry tournaments, making him a formidable competitor.

Ray is also the visionary behind SwagScale, a platform that combines his strategic insights with a flair, offering sports enthusiasts a private community to enjoy sports.

Beyond the fantasy field, Ray holds a Juris Doctor degree from John Marshall Law School, adding a strategic edge to his gameplay. His legal acumen, along with his playing Football, Basketball, and Baseball his entire life and nearly three decades of fantasy experience, make him a respected figure in the community.

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