NFL MNF FOOTBALL Week 1: Jets vs 49ers!

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NFL MNF FOOTBALL Week 1: Jets vs 49ers!

• Sports Picks That Save You Time, Give You Insight, and Make You Money!

• Prizepicks, Fanduel, and Underdog entries below
• EXPERT PICKS: Confidence and Picks Against Spread
• BEST BETS With Detailed Breakdown
• PLAYER PROPS Below Too 👇
• FREE TODAY: Check it out.

• Lines will be based on best bets if we use them since lines change constantly.

EXPERT PICKS: Money Line

EXPERT PICKS: Pick 6 Spreads

Ray's Picks Against The Spread

BEST BETS FOR MONDAY

• I will do straight bets for all of these and usually do round robins (2x2 parlays)
• Fanduel and Draftkings have no sweat bets.

SF -3.5 ✅

• 49ers' Superiority: The 49ers are considered the best team in the NFL, showcasing a strong lineup and consistent performance.
• Neutral Field Advantage: The 49ers are estimated to be seven points better than the Jets on a neutral field, highlighting their superior skill and strategy.
• Home Field Edge: With an additional 1.5 points for playing at home, the 49ers' advantage increases, making the expected spread -8.5.
• Trent Williams Factor: 49ers got back Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuke and line went down? The adjusted spread should be around -8, indicating a significant edge over the Jets.
• Current Spread Discrepancy: The current spread is at -3.5, which seems undervalued given the 49ers' strengths and expected performance.
• Aaron Rodgers Speculation: The spread might suggest Aaron Rodgers is playing, but even if he were, the 49ers' overall talent and top rating should still prevail.
• Confidence in 49ers' Roster: With all their key players available, the 49ers are expected to dominate, making the -3.5 spread an attractive option.

In essence, the 49ers' strengths, combined with the current spread, make them a compelling choice, even if Aaron Rodgers were in the picture.

George Kittle over 41 yards. (I like over 10 fantasy points too) Missed by 1 yard and was wide open twice. This should have hit😡😡

• Reliable Target: George Kittle is a key player in the 49ers' offense, often targeted by the quarterback, which increases his chances of racking up receptions and yards.
• Projected Stats: With a prediction of 4 receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown, Kittle is poised to exceed 10 fantasy points. In standard scoring, that's 4.5 points for receptions and yards, plus 6 points for the touchdown, totaling 10.5 points.
• Yards Over/Under: Betting on Kittle to surpass 41 receiving yards seems promising, given his role and the 49ers' offensive strategy. He's known for making significant yardage after the catch, which can easily push him over this mark.
• Red Zone Threat: Kittle is a formidable presence in the red zone, making him a prime candidate for touchdowns, which are crucial for fantasy scoring.
• Consistency and Skill: Known for his consistency and athleticism, Kittle often delivers solid performances, making him a reliable choice for fantasy points.
• Matchup Advantage: Depending on the opposing team's defense, Kittle's skill set can exploit weaknesses, further boosting his potential to exceed the fantasy point threshold.

Garrett Wilson over 68 yards. (He should get over 100 and TD) Should have won. Easy 13 yard catch and got lazy and didnt drag his feet. 😡😡

• Volume of Targets: Garrett Wilson is expected to catch 6 to 7 passes, indicating a high volume of targets. This level of involvement in the offense increases his chances of accumulating significant yardage.
• Yardage Potential: Wilson is well-equipped to turn those receptions into substantial yardage with his speed and ability to create separation. Averaging around 10 yards per catch would easily put him over the 68-yard mark.
• Touchdown Upside: You mentioned a "cheapy" touchdown, which suggests Wilson's knack for finding the end zone, even in unexpected ways. While touchdowns don't directly contribute to yardage, they highlight his playmaking ability and potential to break free for big gains.
• Matchup Considerations: Depending on the defense he faces, Wilson's skill set can exploit mismatches, allowing him to capitalize on opportunities for longer receptions.
• Offensive Role: As a key player in his team's offensive scheme, Wilson is likely to be a focal point, ensuring he gets the necessary touches to reach and exceed the yardage threshold.
• Consistency and Playmaking: Known for his consistency and ability to make plays, Wilson is a reliable option to deliver the yardage needed to surpass the 68-yard mark.

Breece Hall over 25 receiving yards ✅

• Screen Pass Specialist: Breece Hall is adept at executing screen passes, which are designed to get the ball in his hands quickly and allow him to use his agility to gain yards. This play type is perfect for accumulating receiving yards efficiently.
• Dump-Off Opportunities: With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, Hall is likely to be a frequent recipient of dump-off passes. Rodgers' ability to read defenses and make quick decisions can lead to multiple short passes to Hall, boosting his receiving yardage.
• Yards After Catch (YAC): Hall's speed and elusiveness make him a threat to gain significant yards after the catch. Even short passes can turn into substantial gains, helping him surpass the 25-yard mark.
• Role in the Offense: As a versatile back, Hall is an integral part of the offensive game plan, ensuring he gets enough opportunities to contribute in the passing game.
• Matchup Dynamics: Depending on the defensive alignment, Hall can exploit mismatches against linebackers or safeties, creating more opportunities for receiving yards.
• Consistency and Versatility: Known for his consistency and ability to adapt to various play styles, Hall is a reliable option to deliver the yardage needed to exceed 25 receiving yards.

Deebo Samuel over 47.5 rec yards ✅

• Route Versatility: Deebo Samuel is known for his ability to run various routes, including slants and crossing patterns over the middle. These routes are designed to maximize his speed and agility, allowing him to gain significant yardage after the catch.
• Sauce Gardner's Shadow: With Sauce Gardner likely shadowing Brandon Aiyuk, Samuel should see more opportunities as the primary target. This defensive focus on Aiyuk can open up the field for Samuel to make plays.
• Yards After Catch (YAC) Mastery: Deebo is renowned for his YAC ability. Even short passes can turn into substantial gains, as he excels at breaking tackles and making defenders miss.
• Offensive Game Plan: As a key component of the 49ers' offense, Samuel is expected to be heavily involved in the passing game. His versatility allows him to be used in various formations and situations, increasing his chances of surpassing the yardage threshold.
• Matchup Exploitation: With Gardner focusing on Aiyuk, Samuel can exploit other matchups, particularly against linebackers or safeties, who may struggle to keep up with his speed and physicality.
• Consistency and Playmaking: Known for his consistent performance and ability to make big plays, Samuel is a reliable option to deliver the yardage needed to exceed 47.5 receiving yards.

Year To Date For Best Bets

Win: 10

Loss: 6

Total: 16

63% 🤑 (if you are over 53% you will win money consistently)

NFL PLAYER PROPS FOR MONDAY

QB's

• Brock Purdy over 1.5 tds
• Brock Purdy over 240 pass yards
• Aaron Rodgers over 235.5 pass yards
• Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 TDS

RB'S

• Breece Hall over 25 receiving yards ✅
• Christian McCaffrey over .5 rush/rec TD's DNP
• Christian McCaffrey over 116.5 rush+rec yards DNP

WIDES

• Deebo Samuel over 47.5 rec yards ✅
• Garrett Wilson over 68 yards. (He should get over 100 and TD)
• Brandon Aiyuk over 49.5 yards

TE's

• George Kittle over 41 yards.
• George Kittle over 10 fantasy

KICKERS

• Jake Moody over 7 kicking points ✅

Special

Year To Date For PLAYER PROPS

(Week 1 was terrible for QB's, Wides and TE's)

Win: 23

Loss: 20

Total: 43

54%

• 50% to 55%: This is considered average. Achieving a win rate in this range means you're breaking even or making slight profits, depending on the odds and the vig (the bookmaker's cut).

It's important to note that even professional bettors often aim for a win rate in the mid-50s. Consistency, bankroll management, and understanding the value in odds are crucial factors in achieving a successful sports betting strategy.

• 55% to 60%: This is considered good. Bettors with this win percentage are usually making a profit, assuming they're betting with consistent stakes and managing their bankroll effectively.
• 60% and above: This is considered excellent. Achieving this win rate consistently is challenging and typically indicates a high level of expertise or an effective betting strategy.

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PRIZEPICKS ENTRIES You Can Copy

• Mix and match as you see fit. I like 6-man entries but if you want to do 2-6 it's your money.
• I will do more so check back on the site. I will say ("update" on main title)

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DraftKings Lineups Or Bets

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• DK gave a free bet bc of Nucua getting hurt. I did a bomb parlay:
• SF money/Wilson over 5.5 rec/Kittle over 25 yds/Wilson over 70/CMC td/Deebo over 40yds/Hall over 25 rec yds/ aiyuk over 40 yds/ CMC over 70 yards rushing/ Hall over 50 rush yards/purdy over 225 pass/ rodgers over 200 pass + 6000 ($10 = $600) They have a 50% profit boost which I did too so pays $900 for $10 bet.

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FANDUEL Lineups Or Bets

• I rarely play heads-up games on Fanduel but always do the main slate on Saturday or Sunday.
• Monday

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Your NFL Sensei,

Ray

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ray Morrison is a seasoned pro in the fantasy sports arena, having played since 1994. As a professional DFS and fantasy football player, he's mastered the art of single-entry tournaments, making him a formidable competitor.

Ray is also the visionary behind SwagScale, a platform that combines his strategic insights with a flair, offering sports enthusiasts a private community to enjoy sports.

Beyond the fantasy field, Ray holds a Juris Doctor degree from John Marshall Law School, adding a strategic edge to his gameplay. His legal acumen, along with his playing Football, Basketball, and Baseball his entire life and nearly three decades of fantasy experience, make him a respected figure in the community.

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